A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 乌鸦传媒� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
乌鸦传媒淚t乌鸦传媒檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,乌鸦传媒� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 乌鸦传媒渨orking majority乌鸦传媒� on pretty much all policy decisions.
乌鸦传媒淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn乌鸦传媒檛 control the flow of debate and information乌鸦传媒� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.乌鸦传媒�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 乌鸦传媒� scheduled for Sept. 20 乌鸦传媒� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won乌鸦传媒檛 be enough for a majority 乌鸦传媒� and the Liberals know it.
乌鸦传媒淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?乌鸦传媒� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 乌鸦传媒淗e乌鸦传媒檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he乌鸦传媒檚 done so in very targeted ways.乌鸦传媒�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don乌鸦传媒檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
乌鸦传媒淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,乌鸦传媒� he said.
In both the party乌鸦传媒檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau乌鸦传媒檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 乌鸦传媒渃ertain credibility at the moment乌鸦传媒� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don乌鸦传媒檛 want the Conservatives, but don乌鸦传媒檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.乌鸦传媒�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 乌鸦传媒� such as B.C. 乌鸦传媒� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 乌鸦传媒� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 乌鸦传媒� and it includes initiatives that 乌鸦传媒測ou haven乌鸦传媒檛 heard from Conservatives乌鸦传媒� before.
乌鸦传媒淚t乌鸦传媒檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that乌鸦传媒檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,乌鸦传媒� Leader Erin O乌鸦传媒橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 乌鸦传媒渢ake climate change seriously,乌鸦传媒� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
乌鸦传媒淚 think that O乌鸦传媒橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,乌鸦传媒� he said. 乌鸦传媒�(But) I do think that O乌鸦传媒橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.乌鸦传媒�
The Tories乌鸦传媒� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 乌鸦传媒渃learly a party of the right乌鸦传媒� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
乌鸦传媒淎lthough O乌鸦传媒橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn乌鸦传媒檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.乌鸦传媒�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O乌鸦传媒橳oole 乌鸦传媒� like prior leaders 乌鸦传媒� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 乌鸦传媒� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 乌鸦传媒� may decide it乌鸦传媒檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
乌鸦传媒淚 think it乌鸦传媒檚 hard to see this as a campaign that乌鸦传媒檚 going to inspire anyone,乌鸦传媒� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
乌鸦传媒淚f had to put money down, I乌鸦传媒檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.乌鸦传媒�
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Editor乌鸦传媒檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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