Fire season officially kicked off on April 1.
The province has seen over 50 reported wildfires already and the season has hardly started.
Wildland Fire Ecologist Robert Gray has been studying the science behind wildfires for years. He says when we look to predict upcoming fire seasons, drought is the top concern.
乌鸦传媒淧eople think they can look at snow pack, but there just isn乌鸦传媒檛 any good, strong correlation between snowpack and the eventual fire season乌鸦传媒� Most of the research is showing that drought has a big impact.乌鸦传媒�
Gray says the province saw a very dry late summer and fall last year.
乌鸦传媒淚t乌鸦传媒檚 a concern, because the large fuels - the logs and the duff and stuff, is very dry still right now and if the snowpack comes off very quickly it doesn乌鸦传媒檛 have a chance to soak in. Those fuels are basically ready to burn early summer.乌鸦传媒�
On top of that, Gray says those fuels can be very difficult to extinguish if they catch on fire and typically eat up valuable provincial resources.
乌鸦传媒淔ires tend to eat up resources, and, of course, the more resources you eat up the next fire has fewer resources and it乌鸦传媒檚 a cascading affect.乌鸦传媒�
February through April have been relatively dry in B.C. as well and could fuel a nasty wildfire season, but predicting exactly how the summer will go is not easy.
乌鸦传媒淲e went from a very quiet 2020 to the heat dome in 2021 and a bad fire season. What we can predict is that every three or four or five years we乌鸦传媒檙e going to have a significant fire season, just because of increasing global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, increased drought, things like that. We might have a down year, or down two years, but we乌鸦传媒檙e rolling the dice and eventually we will have a bad fire season.乌鸦传媒�
Gray explained that 2023 could be setting up a challenging fire season for next year.
乌鸦传媒淭he el ninos that we乌鸦传媒檝e had have really driven global temperature. El ninas tend to cool things a little bit. What I乌鸦传媒檝e seen for some of the modelling work, long range modelling, that by next year 2024 we have a building el nino which will probably drive record global temperatures.乌鸦传媒�
READ MORE: Low rainfall may elevate drought, wildfire risks in B.C. this summer
Drought and high temperatures aren乌鸦传媒檛 the only cause for concern. Gray says a year with lots of precipitation allows more growth of fuels.
乌鸦传媒淲e did some prescribed burning in the East Kootenays last year in the springtime and it was moist up until we had that really significant drought in the year. We grew so much grass we could have burnt the same site in the fall.乌鸦传媒�
So what do we do if wildfire season is inevitable? Gray says the more prepared we are ahead of time the better.
乌鸦传媒淲e乌鸦传媒檝e done a lot of fuel treatment, we乌鸦传媒檝e educated people about not starting fires and protecting their homes and stuff, so that it really doesn乌鸦传媒檛 matter what kind of fire season we have because we are ready for it.乌鸦传媒�
According to Gray, the provinces needs to do more work on fire preparation and mitigation.
乌鸦传媒淚 would invest massively in prevention and mitigation,乌鸦传媒� Gray said in response to what he would do if taking over the fire service in B.C. 乌鸦传媒淲e spend an inordinate amount of money on response and recovery, and most of the international disaster agencies like the UN Disaster Program are basically telling governments 乌鸦传媒榶ou need to reverse the formula, you need to spend far more on prevention mitigation,乌鸦传媒� which basically is fuels work.乌鸦传媒�
Gray says the only way to reduce evacuations and impacts to the provincial budget as well as improve air quality is to invest heavily in mitigation work, something the province isn乌鸦传媒檛 doing.
乌鸦传媒淚t乌鸦传媒檚 the same with any other natural disturbance. Whether it乌鸦传媒檚 flooding or earthquakes, if you spend the money up front then when the disaster happens it doesn乌鸦传媒檛 cost you as much. Yet for some strange reason and for 25 years we乌鸦传媒檝e been debating this. We乌鸦传媒檙e not doing it with wildfires, and what乌鸦传媒檚 worse is there乌鸦传媒檚 some out there who are saying it乌鸦传媒檚 too big a problem so therefore there乌鸦传媒檚 no sense in spending the money on it.乌鸦传媒�
Predictions always suggest the places that dry out the fastest are at highest risk for a wildfire. 乌鸦传媒淭he Okanagan, the East Kootenays, the central plateau, Cariboo, Chilcotin - those are the places we tend to have a very long fire season that starts in April or May and if we don乌鸦传媒檛 get June rain then you乌鸦传媒檙e adding June to it. Those are places that it乌鸦传媒檚 about a six month fire season.
As of April 20, B.C. has 26 wildfires currently burning.
READ MORE: Criminal probe begins after campfire-sparked blaze threatened homes in Kamloops
brittany.webster@blackpress.ca
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